Election day outlook for school bond, local races

A strong turnout — and that seems likely — may bode well for the $89 million school bond. The JFK bond provides some insights.

In 2017, the JFK bond failed during a municipal election. The town reduced the project cost, and it returned to the ballot in the 2018 election. But 2018 was a gubernatorial race, with a much stronger turnout. The turnout in the 2017 race was less than half of the 2018 overall election turnout.

The rest of the ticket:

Without local polling, it’s hard to predict how any local race will turn out. But comparing the races to 2024 does provide some insights.

— State Sen. John Kissel won 54% of the vote in 2024. He won in every town but Windsor. He is facing Democrat challenger Davide Kiner. For what it is worth, in my Southwood Acres neighborhood, Kiner signs are abundant. But even if Kiner wins Enfield, the problem will be in more Republican leaning towns that make up this district. Somers, for instance, has 2,100 registered Republicans, 1,218 registered Democrats, and 2,778 unaffiliated. Other towns in this district include East Granby, Suffield, Ellington, Granby, and Windsor Locks.

— State Rep. and council member Carol Hall, a Republican, had a close race in 2024. She got 50.7% of the vote versus Democrat Rick LeBorious, at 49.3.% LeBorious is repeating his challenge.

— State Rep. and council member John Santanella, a Democrat, won his 2024 race by nearly 57%. He won his primary challenge by 83.5%. His Republican challenger, council member Marie Pyznar, has done well in local races.

Charter question may be in trouble

— The leading issue in the charter change package concerns eliminating the residency requirement for the town manager. Even though the charter proposals have bipartisan support, the elimination of the residency requirement doesn’t seem to have any champions in this election. Opponents, however, on social media have been active.