Who Will Win Enfield's Election?

 

A sign at October’s “No Kings” rally in Enfield captures a growing frustration across party lines that may help explain the town’s political shift: “Left or Right, We All See Wrong.” Unaffiliated voters now make up 44 percent of Enfield’s electorate. Photo by author.

We don't conduct polls in Enfield, so it's hard to tell what motivates voters. Here’s a non-scientific look—a reporter's take based on registration data and recent history.

Overall Election Outlook

The outlook for this election remains genuinely uncertain. While the registration numbers point in multiple directions, recent history reminds us that Enfield voters are willing to surprise us.

The Biggest Story: Unaffiliated Voters Widen Their Lead

The main trend in Enfield isn't about Democrats or Republicans—it's unaffiliated voters solidifying their dominance. Their registrations grew 38% in ten years, from 8,695 in 2015 to 12,034. That's 3,339 new voters—exceeding both parties' combined growth of 2,910.

Voter data from Connecticut Secretary of State. An active voter is a registered voter who has either voted or updated their registration in recent elections. 

Unaffiliated voters now represent 44% of Enfield's active electorate—the largest single voting bloc, surpassing both Democrats (30%) and Republicans (24%).

Republican Momentum

Republican registration grew 48.8% over the decade—the fastest of any group. The party added 2,157 voters, rising to 6,576 from 4,419 in 2015. This growth signals energy and successful recruitment.

But Democrats still have 8,056 registered voters—a 1,480-voter advantage. To win on Tuesday, Republicans need not just to turn out their base, but to win a significant share of those 12,034 unaffiliated voters.

Democrats Have Numbers

Democratic registration rose 10.3%, gaining 753 voters over 10 years—a real but slower increase than Republicans or unaffiliated voters. With significant overall registration growth, just 10% shows weak momentum.

National Political Climate: A Wild Card

National sentiment can swing local elections. In 2021, Republicans flipped 19 Connecticut towns while Democrats won five—news outlets linked this to anti-Biden sentiment after his first year.

This year is less clear. Trump took office in January 2025. Discontent could drive Democrats, while Trump’s base may be even more energized.

Without polling data, it's impossible to know which national sentiment—satisfaction or discontent—will prevail in Enfield on Tuesday.

Difficult to Predict

Money: Republicans have a fundraising advantage, but both sides seem to be relying heavily on free social media outreach. In a local race, a cash advantage may not be decisive.

Specific Local Issues: Defunding the warming center, spending nearly $600,000 on pickleball courts, and threatening to outsource trash collection (later abandoned)—these controversies have stirred debate. If these issues simply harden existing partisan divisions, unaffiliated voters become even more decisive.

Budget: Republicans market themselves as fiscal conservatives; Democrats defend education funding. The GOP's 'tax-and-spend' critique has historically resonated in Enfield, but Democratic warnings about underfunded schools — larger class sizes, lost sports programs, staffing shortages — may be gaining traction. But again, it's impossible to know what local voters are thinking.

Economic development: Republicans point to progress: the MassMutual and Enfield Square redevelopments promise new tax revenue, and dense housing developments typically generate more in taxes than they cost in services. But population growth is a polarizing issue, with some voters seeing opportunity while others worry about traffic and overcrowding.

The 2021 Democratic Win: A Warning Sign for Republicans

The Republicans have dominated local elections for two decades, but their 2021 election should trouble them. That year wasn't politically turbulent in Enfield. The last Republican budget before the election didn't raise taxes. The party should have coasted to reelection. Despite fiscal restraint, Democrats won.

Why? No Single Answer

Democrats may have run a better campaign, voter fatigue with one-party rule, the increase in unaffiliated voters may suggest a more volatile electorate, and/or a response to national political issues -- we can't tell for sure.

Local frustration over Enfield's direction? By 2021, Enfield Square was in deep trouble, the MassMutual campus was shutting down, and the construction of a warehouse on North Maple Street was unsettling to many. People may have been wondering, as they drove around town, where other warehouses would be built. 

Regardless of the cause, Enfield Republicans can't take incumbency advantage for granted.

Why Democrats Lost in 2023

Two years later, Democrats lost power just as suddenly as they'd gained it. The most likely explanation: a property revaluation that automatically raised taxes and a significant tax increase on top of it.

Democrats couldn't survive the voter anger that followed the tax increase. 

The Next Council Faces the Same Problem

Whoever wins on Tuesday inherits a difficult situation. Another revaluation may shift the tax burden to residents. Compounding that problem is a declining fund balance, which limits the next council's ability to cushion any revaluation tax shock.

It won't be an easy two years for either party.

Bottom Line

This race comes down to the 12,000 unaffiliated voters. Republicans have impressive momentum and rapid growth. Democrats retain a numerical registration advantage. 

Ultimately, the outcome hinges on how unaffiliated voters decide. Tuesday's winner remains impossible to call.

Appendix 

Source: Connecticut Secretary of State