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Showing posts with the label Election forecast

Editorial: A legal victory with complications

The Connecticut Superior Court ruling Tuesday validated State Rep. John Santanella's complaint. This is a clear win, and allows him to avoid an August 11 Democratic primary against his challenger, former town attorney Tom Tyler. Tyler can appeal, but absent that, Santanella can shift his focus to November. But a winning legal outcome is not the same as a winning narrative outcome. This was an honest mistake by the Tyler campaign, a consequence of some flawed official guidance and a decision to rely on that guidance. The court found that the Democratic registrar provided petition sheets four days before state law allowed, and that the state-supplied forms lacked a legally required statement from circulators on the number of signatures gathered — a defect that invalidated all of Tyler's petitions. The ruling also notes that there was no evidence the Tyler campaign exercised due diligence to confirm the official guidance. Connecticut election law doesn't allow for honest mista...

Trump can win Enfield if Democrats stay home

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Trump's steady support in Enfield means the Democrats need a strong turnout Vice President Kamala Harris should win Enfield if -- and this is a big if -- the Democrats see a strong turnout. Harris is expected to easily win Connecticut in November over former President Donald Trump. But Enfield is a purple town, where Trump has maintained a solid base of support, making the outcome largely dependent on Democratic turnout. Let’s look at what happened in the 2016 and 2020 presidential races. In 2016, Trump won Enfield, receiving 9,238 votes, and slightly increased his total to 9,298 in 2020. These results indicate that Trump's support in Enfield remains remarkably steady. In 2016, Hillary Clinton received 8,548 votes. In 2020, Biden benefited from a much stronger Democratic turnout. He won Enfield with 11,263 votes—a notable increase of 2,715 votes. Assuming Trump’s base remains steady, Democrats will once again need a strong turnout to win in November. If Democratic voters don’t...